Investment Planning Horizons Extend Beyond Immediate Crude Pricing Arbitrage

Indian refiners’ investment planning horizons in 2025 extended beyond immediate crude pricing arbitrage, incorporating long-term strategic considerations into procurement decisions. While US crude imports to India increased by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion in the same period.
December 2025 procurement reflected extended planning horizons. Russian crude shipments to India declined by 15.15% to $2.71 billion from $3.2 billion in December 2024, despite continued short-term price advantages. Refiners evaluated how supplier relationships aligned with multi-year investment plans and strategic positioning.
Suppliers supporting long-term investment planning expanded relationships. Saudi Arabia’s 61% growth to $1.75 billion in December 2025 aligned with joint venture discussions and capacity expansion plans. The United States’ 31% increase to $569.30 million supported technology partnership development. Iraq and the UAE, contributing $2.37 billion and $1.65 billion respectively, engaged in long-term supply agreements.
Long-term planning gained emphasis following the US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025. This policy demonstrated how short-term price optimization could conflict with long-term strategic objectives. Refiners increasingly evaluated suppliers based on multi-year relationship potential rather than immediate arbitrage opportunities. Russian crude imports declined from $3.62 billion in July 2025 to $2.71 billion in December 2025.
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The extended horizons demonstrate strategic thinking beyond immediate economics.